OK, it's certainly premature to open the bubbly at this point. But given all that we see, maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to get one of those bottles chilling for later.
Across our portfolio and with conversations with our colleagues in other venture funds, there is a steady, rising drumbeat of, "Hey, things are feeling better...in some cases much better!" We're seeing increased customer activity across our companies. Budgets that were frozen in late 2008 and stayed that way in 2009 are starting to loosen up. A couple of our companies are actually ahead of plan for the year so far (unheard of in 2008 & 2009).
In the last six months, we've seen the return of investment bankers on our calendar (over the last few years, we thought of them like unicorns - cute but imaginary beasts). They see a recovery in the economy, bulging corporate balance sheets, and investor cash on the sidelines all pointing to a release of pent up demand for products, companies, and public stock offerings. Are they right? Are we right? Time will tell...but as of this time, it feels SO much better than it did even three months ago that we have to believe better times are not just ahead, but with us already.
The data below point to how hard and fast the fall was in the second half of 2008, and it appears a sustainable upslope forming now.